In late February 2026, during a meeting with Goldman Sachs, SK Hynix executives disclosed that 'no client's memory demand could be fully met this year. 'This statement underscores the irreversible shift from a buyer's market to a seller's market in the storage industry, exacerbated by the structural shortage caused by the rapid expansion of computing power in the AI era.
The severity of this shortage stems primarily from the critical shortage of memory inventory.SK Hynix disclosed that its DRAM and NAND flash memory inventories have dwindled to approximately 4 weeks 'supply, far below the industry's recommended 6-8 week safety buffer level, leaving the supply chain with virtually no room for maneuver.Goldman Sachs' concurrent projections reveal a stark reality: Global memory demand is projected to grow by 26% in 2026, while supply growth remains at 21%. The DRAM supply-demand gap has widened to 4.9%, with NAND reaching 4.2%—both figures hitting 15-year highs.This is not a short-term inventory fluctuation, but an inevitable outcome under the rigid constraints on both supply and demand sides.
The surge in demand stems primarily from the explosive growth of AI computing power.With the surge in large model training and inference demands, a single AI server now consumes 8-10 times more DRAM than traditional servers, while NAND usage has tripled.With capital expenditures reaching hundreds of billions, cloud giants like Microsoft and Google have secured over 70% of the world's high-end memory production capacity.Meanwhile, inventories for both PC and mobile clients were rapidly depleting, with restocking demands and AI requirements creating a ripple effect that further exacerbated shortages across all product categories.
Given the extended production ramp-up period for memory chip expansion, SK Hynix has explicitly stated that the semiconductor industry is grappling with a physical bottleneck of cleanroom space shortages. The construction of advanced process and HBM production lines requires 18-24 months, making effective supply unlikely in the near term.To boost gross margins, industry leaders including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have redirected over 70% of their production capacity to high-end HBM3E and HBM4 memory chips, while proactively scaling back consumer-grade general-purpose memory output. This has created a widespread supply crunch characterized by 'sold-out premium products, strained mid-range offerings, and reduced low-end production.'
The ripple effect of the market has been rapidly manifested.In terms of pricing, server DRAM contract prices surged by nearly 90% in Q1 2026, while consumer-grade SSDs saw a parallel price spike. The HBM spot premium even exceeded 300%.In the supply model, 'limited allocation' has become the norm, with some clients required to prepay to secure production capacity.Customers' blind stockpiling will only push prices higher.
This memory crisis is reshaping the competitive dynamics of the entire semiconductor industry.For tech companies, accepting high prices and competing for production capacity are no longer optional choices, but essential survival skills.For the industry, this represents both a prime investment window for mature processes and advanced packaging, as well as a critical opportunity for domestic memory manufacturers to achieve breakthroughs.The memory market in 2026 will be volatile yet brimming with opportunities. Driven by AI computing power, this 'all-round shortage' scenario may become the new industry norm in the coming years.
