By 2026, the global semiconductor industry, still reeling from the impact of AI, is facing yet another major test in its supply chain. The recent policy of restricting vessel passage in the Strait of Hormuz - with the possibility of further changes at any time - has triggered a chain reaction that is gradually affecting the chip industry. The volatility of global chip spot market prices has begun to emerge, and the upward pressure on industry costs continues to intensify.
As of March 2026, spot prices for some chips have risen by about 5-15%, with some core components related to drones increasing by over 100%, and certain military-related components seeing even higher increases of up to 200%. Moreover, spot market prices quoted on a given day are only valid if orders are placed on the same day, which may further trigger panic buying by customers.
As a critical "chokepoint" for global energy and commodity transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles nearly one-third of the world's crude oil trade and nearly 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments. It is also a key maritime channel for shipping essential materials for chip manufacturing, such as semiconductor-grade basic chemicals, special gas precursors, and core monomers for photoresists, from the Middle East to the rest of the world. In 2026, with the continued expansion of the global AI and new energy vehicle industries, chip production capacity is operating at high levels, and the upstream raw material supply chain is already in a state of tight balance. This restriction on passage has directly disrupted this fragile equilibrium.
The impact on shipping has been the first to manifest. After the implementation of the passage restrictions, a large number of container ships and chemical tankers carrying semiconductor raw materials face a 7-15 day delay in port. Vessels choosing to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa experience an additional 18-22 days of travel time, significantly extending delivery cycles. Meanwhile, freight rates for shipping routes in the Persian Gulf have surged by over 40% in a single week, with some special chemical transport rates doubling, directly driving up the cost of raw materials delivered to ports.
As the impact trickles down to the semiconductor industry chain, spot quotations for high-purity chemicals and olefin feedstocks from Middle Eastern production regions have already risen by 15%-30% in a single month. The delivery cycles for core consumables such as photoresists and special gases have generally been extended by more than 10 days. As a high-energy-consuming industry, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices caused by the strait restrictions have also directly increased the energy costs of global wafer fabs. Particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where mature process wafer fabs have an energy cost that accounts for over 20% of production costs, there have been small upward adjustments in foundry prices.
At the end-user market level, spot prices for mature process categories such as automotive-grade MCUs, consumer electronics power management chips, and industrial control chips have already seen a 5%-12% month-on-month increase, with some scarce categories experiencing even higher increases.
Global chip traders have begun to adjust their inventory strategies, with the demand for safety stock increasing, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the spot market and amplifying price fluctuations.
Industry insiders point out that if the restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue, the cost pressure on the chip industry chain will continue to be passed downstream. Combined with the steady recovery of global chip demand, 2026 may see a new round of upward price cycles for global chips, posing a severe challenge to the cost reduction process of the global electronics industry.
Source of information:
Sources: Sohu (STARTRADER Forex), TopBuzz (Yuan Yuan's Science Talk), East Money Wealth Channel, chinastarmarket (Electronic Engineering Special Edition)
